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February 22, 2025 – Back in 1974 Merle Haggard released a new song, If We Make It Through December. It explored the feelings of an unemployed father struggling to make ends meet, and provide some kind of happy Christmas for his family. One observer conceded that the song was heartbreaking, but said that didn’t matter to the people who prefer honestly-rendered pain to “false merriment.” Still, the chorus repeats, “If we make it through December, everything’s gonna be alright I know… If we make it through December we’ll be fine.”

So what brought that song to my mind? Just that lately there are lots of Americans heartbroken over the direction they see the country taking. One example? Lots of posts noting Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days. Specifically, on how on January 30, 1933, Hitler was appointed the 15th chancellor of the Weimar Republic, and how a mere 53 days later, in “one of the most astonishing political transformations in the history of democracy,” he destroyed a “constitutional republic through constitutional means.” And a cautionary note: The original story said he “set out” to destroy, which is way different than actually “dismantling democracy in 53 days.” (One example, a later post said “Hitler tore down a democracy in just 53 Days.”)

The implication was pretty obvious, that something similar will happen in our own country. Aside from the “tore down in 53 days” post, another said Trump told top aides he wanted the same kind of ‘totally loyal’ generals that Hitler had. Which sounded pretty bad, until I did some of that Lateral Reading stuff and saw what Snopes had to say: That lacking further detail or corroboration, “we have rated this claim as unproven.” (Trump has only been in office two days over a month now, meaning: “Boy are the next four years going to be interesting…”)

Getting back to the 53 days, I some calculating, and our 53 days – from Trump’s swearing-in on January 20 – comes out to March 13, 2025. As for Hitler, most sources indicate his countdown started on January 30, 1933, when – as noted – German President Paul von Hindenburg appointed him Chancellor of Germany. (One big difference between our political systems.) At any rate, assuming our countdown started last January 20, the fifty-third day would come on March 13, 2025. (Awfully close to the Ides of March, of Julius Caesar fame.)

So, like Merle’s Make It Through December, I figure if we can make it through to March 13th, “Everything’s gonna be all right I know.” Let’s hope so, but here’s the timeline, according to 1933 in Germany – Wikipedia, which can give us a heads up. The countdown started on January 30, as noted, and on February 27, “The Reichstag, Germany’s parliament building in Berlin, is set on fire under controversial circumstances.” With our countdown starting 10 days earlier, that means on February 17 there should have been a suspicious act of destruction, which Trump would say was caused by Democrats, liberals or other such scum of the earth*.

Next day, February 28, the German legislature – the Reichstag – passed the Reichstag Fire Decree in response, “nullifying many German civil liberties.” On our adjusted February 18 timetable, nothing like that happened. In Germany’s March 1, 1933, “Hundreds are arrested as the Nazis round up their political opponents.” Which should have happened for us on February 19. And finally, on Hitler’s March 5, a German federal election was held in which the Nazi party gained 43.9% of the votes. (We won’t have such an election. Hmmm.)

So, adjusting for Trump’s taking office on January 20, not January 30, the new “53 days” timeline would look like this. February 17 will feature some perceived emergency or disaster, “under controversial circumstances.” Next day, February 18, Congress will pass a decree in response, nullifying many American civil liberties. The day after that, February 19, hundreds of Americans should have been arrested as Trump had his political opponents rounded up.

On that note I just Googled “Trump political enemies jailed” and got nada, except threats he made before the election. Then Googled “has Trump had any political enemies jailed,” and got much the same list. (Along with this from three months ago, Trump has threatened to jail his critics. As one of them should I be worried?) Meaning we might want to keep those February 27, February 28, March 1 and March 5 timelines in mind. And we might even change Merle’s adjusted lyrics to “if we make it through March Twenty-third,” to err on the side of caution.

But are we in the same position as the Weimar Republic in 1933? Created a mere 15 years before, in 1918, after the devastating losses in World War One? Millions of service-members and civilians dead? Untold billions in war debt and reparations? For one point of view:

Our republic is far older than was Weimar; we are not a parliamentary system; the dates of our elections are, for better or worse, fixed; our courts wield greater power; the media environment and superconducting modes of information exchange are particular to our age; our economy, unlike 1933 Germany’s, is not mired in a punishing depression…

That’s from A Fourth Reich? It’s Not Just a Bad Dream. For a somewhat different point of view see Here’s what federal judges could do if they’re ignored by the Trump administration.

David Cole, a Georgetown Law professor who has repeatedly argued cases before the Supreme Court on behalf of the American Civil Liberties Union, predicted that the most likely penalty a president would face for defying a court order would be political – not legal.

“If the president were to defy an order, it would cause a political firestorm,” Cole said. “And he knows that, and he’s therefore very unlikely to do it.” Which remains to be seen of course…

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Now a couple thoughts to close out. First, every executive power that Trump expands can be used by every Democrat president from here on. Second, We the People hired Trump – temporarily – to do one thing: Fix the economy, period. Which means bringing down prices across the board, and bringing down inflation. Those two are what the Sovereign People want from Trump. Especially those younger People – and others feeling disadvantaged and left out – who want a better better chance of finally realizing the American Dream. In particular, being able to own a home, despite high mortgage rates and a scarcity of available houses.

Meanwhile, there are signs that Trump’s honeymoon is over. (See POLITICO‘s take: “New polls show a majority of Americans say he has overstepped his presidential authority — and hasn’t done enough to address high prices.”) But that’s thinking long term. For now let’s just see if we can “make it through March Thir-teenth.” And ponder whether we as a nation prefer the honestly-rendered pain needed to survive, or that “false merriment” of ignoring the problem.

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The upper image is courtesy of Merle Haggard – Wikipedia, which noted that he “accepted a Kennedy Center Honor on December 4, 2010, from the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in recognition of his lifetime achievement and ‘outstanding contribution to American culture.'” (Which seems rather ironic in light of certain recent events.)

Re: “Scum of the earth.” That’s how Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington, described the soldiers who made up the bulk of his armies. (Wikiquote, though by and through them he defeated Napoleon and saved the English way of life. And “not that there’s any connection to current events or anything.”) Another point: Famous leaders need such “scum” to win battles and stay in power.

Re: Owning a home. See The Cornerstone of the American Dream Is Still To Own a Home – and Many Think It’s Achievable. But see also Is the American Dream of Homeownership Still Within Reach?

Another sign of the end of the presidential honeymoon, Angry crowd confronts Republican in deep-red Georgia with ‘boos and catcalls’ over support for Trump’s agenda.

The lower image is courtesy We The People Image – Image Results. See also Preamble to the United States Constitution – Wikipedia and Constitution101: The Sovereignty of the People:

The federal government acts like it stands as sovereign in the American system, but that was never intended… In fact, the federal government was never meant to serve as anything more than an agent, exercising the specific powers delegated by the true sovereign… While many Americans assume the federal government sits at the top of the power pyramid, it actually belongs on the bottom. Under the intended constitutional system, “we the people” hold the top position of authority… The very first words of the Constitution make this clear… Have you ever wondered why these three words appear in large, ornate letters? When an 18^th century British king issued a grant, his name always appeared at the top in the same fashion. The framers merely replaced the king’s name with “We the People,” signifying the sovereign authority from which the delegation of power flowed. 

A lengthy quote which may be explored further in some future post, if and as necessary.

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February 11, 2025 – Back in August 26, 2023 (well before the results of our last election came in), I pondered what a Second Trump term might mean. (“Gasp!”) Ten days before that – August 16, 2023 – I did a draft, “On Liberty’s ‘FIRST Crisis.'” Later that day I did another draft, “More on Liberty’s ‘FIRST Crisis.'” They had to do with “one of my favorite go-back-to books, Liberty’s First Crisis: Adams, Jefferson, and the Misfits who saved Free Speech, by Charles Slack.” It described the effects of the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts, when the party in power criminalized undue criticism of that party in power. (The Federalists.) And about how democracy survived.

I also mentioned that book – earlier – at the end of a May 24, 2018 post, On “Pirate’s Island,” Alabama. (About a kayaking adventure on Logan Martin Lake and seeing what I first took to be an American flag, but turned out to be a Jolly Roger, on a “little bitty island about a 100 yards offshore.” A bit of foreshadowing?) In this post I’ll try to tie up those long-ago loose ends.

But first a look at that August 26 Second term post, which included this:

I must confess – I “do not deny, but confess” – to some sleepless nights about that [second term]. Sleepless nights at the thought of him winning the 2024 presidential election. To be sure, that seems far-fetched at this point.* Or maybe not. The point is, with a second Trump term America might start looking more like Arkady Renko’s Russia[:] Death threats, reporters disappearing, broken legs, riots. At least that’s what some think…

BTW, those Renko novels feature a fictional Moscow (as in, Russian) chief investigator in charge of homicide investigations, but somehow his friends and co-workers keep getting killed off and he keeps getting into deeper and deeper trouble. After the first one, Gorky Park, the sequels show him taking on roles “varying from a militiaman to a worker on a fish processing ship in the Arctic.” That fish-processing sequel was Polar Star, which I found most interesting “because in it, Renko’s world has been turned upside down. Like America will be if Trump gets re-elected in 2024.” In other words, the novels give a good idea what it’s like to live in a dictatorship.

For example, those death threats, “reporters disappearing, broken legs, riots,” as I said in that August 26, ’23 post. (You could Google “Trump dissent crack down” for more specific examples.) Which brings up what one lady reporter said in Tatiana, a later Renko novel:

The thugs who do such work are meticulous… We recruit them and train them and call them patriots. And when they find an honest journalist, they let the bear loose… Sooner or later, I will be poisoned or nudged off a cliff or shot by a stranger…

But there’s hope in Renko’s ongoing ability to survive such dangers in his world turned upside down. In Polar Star he finds himself “gutting fish on a factory ship in the Bering Sea, in part to hide from the KGB, who have tried to kill him.” (Wikipedia.) Or as I wrote in Second Trump, Renko is “among the onboard lowest of the low. He works on the slime line, in the lowest bowels of the ship. But survive he does, with tricks and techniques we might all need to learn, possibly starting on Election Day, 2024.” And that turned out to be a bit of foreshadowing.

In other words, things turn out fine in that novel, as in the other Renko adventures; he manages to survive dire circumstances. Applying that message of hope to a possible Trump2 I noted, “There may be a blood bath (hopefully metaphoric) if he gets re-elected. And lots of weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth. But in the end we’ve gotten through worse, and will again.”

Which brings us back to First Crisis, the story of the first big test of the First Amendment, when the Federalists in power passed an extreme piece of legislation that made criticizing the government or its leaders a crime punishable by heavy fines and jail time, and so “the country’s future hung in the balance.” (Sound familiar?) That “extreme piece of legislation” was the 1798 series of Alien and Sedition Acts, of which John Adams said, “Mankind will in time discover that unbridled majorities are as tyrannical and cruel as unlimited despots.”

The jury is still out on that last thought, but First Crisis does bring up some nuggets of wisdom from Charles Slack‘s book. Like its page 3, which said, “The greatest enemy of liberty is fear.  When people feel comfortable and well protected, they are naturally expansive and tolerant of one another’s opinions and rights.  When they feel threatened, their tolerance shrinks.” Which seems to have happened in the last four-to-eight years. But it raises the question: Are we willing to keep that tolerance and spirit of compromise? Or the noble idea on page 59, that free speech “belongs to each individual wrestling with his own conscience, and is meaningless unless the people one most hates can have heir say without fear of official reprisal?”

Then there’s the thought from page 73, that dealing with the 1798 Sedition Acts occurred “not among a nation of ignorant sheep in need of rulers, but of free people working things out, turning ideas over in their minds and having their say, state to state, town to town, brother to brother.” Which raises the question: Are we still a free people, capable of working things out, or have we become a nation of ignorant sheep, in need of a strong ruler?

On the other hand there is this one possible bright spot about those Alien and Sedition acts: In the 1800 U.S. presidential election voters booted Federalists out of office and the party pretty much faded from political view. It was never a viable political force after that.

In the meantime, on the topic of hoping for the best – or at least trying to keep a positive attitude – I’m getting ready to hike the Canterbury Trail (Pilgrims’ Way) in England this August ’25, from Winchester to the cathedral in Canterbury. (And maybe checking out the process for moving over there?) The next four years are going to be extremely interesting…

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The upper image is courtesy of Hope For The Best Prepare For The Worst – Image Results. On a thought credited to Benjamin Disraeli. See Wikipedia.

Re: “Far-fetched at this point.” The Second-term post noted “the poll saying 53% of US voters say they wouldn’t vote for Trump. (Another poll puts that figure at a whopping 64% of Americans.” Meaning 53% of Americans said they “‘definitely’ would not support him and another 11% said they ‘probably’ would not support him.” (So much for the polls.)

The lower image is courtesy of The Nightmare – Wikipedia. “‘The Nightmare‘ is a 1781 oil painting by Swiss artist Henry Fuseli. It shows a woman in deep sleep with her arms thrown below her, and with a demonic and ape-like incubus crouched on her chest.” To which I added these thoughts:

A head’s up. The punchline for the [image] above would be, “At least it wouldn’t be as bad as living in Russia!” That’s the impression I got after starting to read my latest Arkady Renko novel. (Tatiana, one of a series of “life in Russia” novels by Martin Cruz Smith.) [And] a word about those Renko novels. They really make me appreciate living in the United States.

Which was true back then, but am I now starting to wonder? There’s Lincoln’s thought: “When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretence of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocracy.” (Sic, from Lincoln on the Know Nothing Party – Lincoln Home National Historic Site.)

I guess we’ll have to wait and see, while “getting ready,” etc.

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For possible future reference here are some other notes from First Crisis. From page 3, on how Federalists saw themselves as “protectors of family, faith, education, and country…  [T]hey believed in liberty, yes, but liberty as informed and guided by a natural aristocracy consisting of themselves.” Then there’s page 49, which noted Freedom of the Press is the Bulwark of Liberty. Page 59 went on to talk about James Callender. Of whom Wikipedia noted that in the late 1790s, Thomas Jefferson sought him out to attack President Adams, which Callender did. (And Jefferson won.) But then after Jefferson won, Callender asked for a cushy federal postmaster job as a reward. Jefferson said no, after which Callender switched sides and “reported on President Jefferson’s alleged children by his slave concubine Sally Hemings.” (Which brought to mind the expression, “It all depends on whose ox is being gored.”)

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For more on the gored ox see King, Christie: Classic “Ox is Gored” Conservatives, on the idea that “Conservatives only like government intervention when those close to them or their immediate constituents personally need it.” In turn the expression “it all depends on whose ox is being gored” is from Exodus 21:28 and 29:

If a bull gores a man or woman to death, the bull is to be stoned to death, and its meat must not be eaten.  But the owner of the bull will not be held responsible.If, however, the bull has had the habit of goring and the owner has been warned but has not kept it penned up and it kills a man or woman, the bull is to be stoned and its owner also is to be put to death.

See also What is the meaning of the idiom It all depends on whose ox is being gored.

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Welcome to the “Georgia Wasp…”

This blog is modeled on the Carolina Israelite. That was an old-time newspaper – more like a personal newsletter – written and published by Harry Golden. Back in the 1950s, people called Harry a  “voice of sanity amid the braying of jackals.” (For his work on the Israelite.)

That’s now my goal as well. To be a “voice of sanity amid the braying of jackals.”

For more on the blog-name connection, see the notes below.

In the meantime:

January 21,* 2025 – I’m trying to take the high road. Trying to think that maybe – just maybe – in their collective wisdom the Sovereign People made a good choice last November. In the alternative I’m just hoping the next four years won’t be as bad as lots of people think. I’m writing this so I can check back on January 20, 2029, and see whose prognostications proved correct. (And to the extent possible I’ll try to stay out of the crossfire.) But it’s tough.

Robert Reich for one doesn’t hold out much hope, as I discovered this past week when I ran across his video, Why Trump Won … YouTube. He said basically that Trump won by expressing the anger and frustration of the vast-majority of working class Americans, while at the same time planning fat-cat-friendly policies – like increasing corporate welfare – meaning most Trump voters will be in the same position (if not worse off) four years from now.

That led me to some lateral reading and these other posts: Economist Robert Reich ‘goes back 4 decades’ to explain why Trump ‘isn’t the cause’ of US dysfunction, and Robert B. Reich: Will Trump get credit for Biden’s successes? (I wouldn’t be surprised if he did.) Next – from a hot tip – I Googled “shove the presidency down trump’s throat,” and found these posts: Shove the Presidency Down Trump’s Throat – Yahoo News, and a review of that post, ‘Real job stress’: Democrats handed fresh advice. Finally I found this from Rolling Stone magazine, American Authoritarianism. How Bad Will It Get Under Trump?

One thing Rolling Stone said was that despite the Constitution’s two-term limit – the 22nd Amendment – Trump will try to stay in office “for life.” On the other hand (they said), America’s system of federalism offers hope: “Many things are going to be terrible. But controlling the federal government doesn’t mean you’re controlling everything.” Author Tim Dickinson exhorted Americans to support local institutions that uphold democratic norms and strengthen them.

Defending those institutions will give proponents of America’s democratic experiment their best shot at recovery, when the MAGA movement stumbles. Here, Trump’s age and lack of a clear successor offers some hope. “He’s old, so at some point, age is going to make a difference… There will be a power struggle. The next opportunity will be when he dies in office.”

Then too I recently started reading Stephanie Grisham’s book, I’ll Take Your Questions Now (“What I saw at the Trump White House”), for clues about what to expect coming up in “Trump 2.” (Page 7 talked about Trump’s appeal to voters, page 36 talked about the revolving-door chiefs of staff, and page 22 talked about Mitt Romney’s experience: “I don’t know how aware he was at that point about Trump’s slow, deliberate torture of him or if he was a particularly vengeful man. But in the years to come he would find ways to get back at Trump.” Hmmm…)

Meanwhile, I have a few thoughts of my own. Some I expressed in past posts, like April 2019’s On “why I don’t like Donald Trump.” Also, August 2019’s On “why it might be better…” (Gasp!) As in, why it might have been better if Trump had been reelected in 2020. (Legitimately that is. For one thing, he would have been leaving office on 1/20/25.) Then too, as things started looking more bleak (for many Americans), I posted this from August 2023, On a second Trump term.

I’ll be checking and re-checking those sources in the months and years to come.

And I had other thoughts: Like, that Trump will have a Honeymoon Period, the “period of popularity enjoyed by a new leader,” but that period is getting shorter; recently down to seven months, “from an average of 26 months earlier in American history.” For another thing, there’s the Paradox of Leadership: Why We Build Up Only to Tear Down: As soon as Americans elevate a new leader to high office, “we seem equally driven to bring them down… The fall from grace, then, is almost inevitable.” Third, in my view the Sovereign People hired Trump to do one thing: Fix the economy. Bring prices down, make it easier – or even possible – for today’s young people to buy a home of their own, and pay reasonable prices for food, housing and gas.

To the extent he can do that, he’ll succeed. Otherwise, there will be a day of reckoning…

In the meantime, on to more pleasant things. Like, this August I’ll be hiking the Canterbury Trail in England, more formally known as the Pilgrims’ Way. My companions and I will start the 120-mile-or-so hike in Winchester. (And on to the shrine of Thomas Becket at Canterbury in Kent.) Along the way and while in London I’ll wear my Dodger hat with the prominent “LA.” But to ward off rude remarks and puzzled questions. I’ll also wear this button. (But hidden, maybe under a lapel, ready to flash, “just in case.”) It’ll pay to be careful in the upcoming months and years…

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The upper image is courtesy of Fortune Teller Image – Image Results. See also Prediction, Forecasting, and Nostradamus, all from Wikipedia. Here’s another interesting post – maybe to review in four years – How Donald Trump Won the 2024 Election | TIME, for comparison purposes.

Re: “1/20/25.” I wanted to post this on Inauguration Day but couldn’t. (Intervening circumstances.) I actually posted it at 8:00 p.m. the following day, but because it was so “late” the way-bottom of the text says it was posted on January 22. Also, about that word in the title: The verb “reckoning” means the action or process of calculating or estimating something, as in something coming up in the future? See Collins English Dictionary for variable and countable nouns, and synonyms. Also Merriam-Webster, about a settling of accounts or calculating a ship’s position.

Re: “Crossfire.” The actual idiom is Caught in the crossfire – Idioms by The Free Dictionary. Literally it means to be caught “in the middle of an exchange of gunfire.” Or affected by or made to be involved in a conflict “one is not a part of,” but of course, as an American citizen and thus part of the Sovereign People, I’ll be very much involved in the upcoming events.

References to the Gresham book are from the 2021 Harper Collins hardcover. Here’s another tidbit, from page 60: “The Secret Service secretly dubbed [Melania Trump] ‘Rapunzel’ because she remained in her tower; never descending.” And that agents tried to get assigned to her detail, with “limited movements and travel,” because they could spend more time at home with their families. (I’ll try to add more such tidbits in future posts.)

Re: The economy. The Reich YouTube video included a graph showing the economy (80%) as second only to immigration (90%) as the top issues that mattered most to voters.

Re: Lateral reading. The link, Best media literacy tip to vet credible sources from the Poynter Institute.

Re: “Honeymoon.” I Googled “Biden’s honeymoon period” and got links like How Joe Biden’s approval ratings looked across four years, Biden Honeymoon Unlikely Despite Early Challenges – U.S. News, and The president’s “first 100 days” is a myth — Biden included | Vox. There’s some interesting reading there; I’ll be checking them too in the coming months and years.

Also re: Checking and re-checking. I’ll also do that for things like the Consumer Price Index, the rate of inflation and the prices of gas and a dozen eggs. See News Releases, from January 15, 2015 (CPI), AAA Fuel Prices, from 1/21/25 ($3.12 on average), Is there an egg shortage? Here’s why prices are up, from 1/9/25 (“up to $3.65 in November versus $3.37 in October and $2.14 in November 2023”), and What is the current inflation rate in the US? – USAFacts. (2.7 percent as of November 2024).

The lower image is courtesy of Dont Blame Me I Voted for Kamala 1.25 Button. ($2.25, plus shipping. There’s also one for $6.99, A stylized “Vote,” followed by “Don’t look at me. I didn’t vote for him.” See also Don’t Blame Me, I Voted For Harris | www.splicetoday.com.

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Re:  The Israelite.  Harry Golden grew up in the Jewish ghetto of New York City, but eventually moved to Charlotte, North Carolina.  Thus the “Carolina Israelite.”  I on the other hand am a “classic 73-year-old “WASP” – White Anglo-Saxon Protestant – and live in north Georgia.  Thus the “Georgia Wasp.”    

Anyway, in North Carolina Harry wrote and published the “israelite” from the 1940s through the 1960s.  He was a “cigar-smoking, bourbon-loving raconteur.”  (He told good stories.) That also means if he was around today, the “Israelite would be done as a blog.”  But what made Harry special was his positive outlook on life.  As he got older but didn’t turn sour, like many do today.  He still got a kick out of life.  For more on the blog-name connection, see “Wasp” and/or The blog.

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As noted, this blog honors Harry Golden and his Carolina Israelite. At the top of this page you’ll see ABOUT THAT “WASP” NAME and ABOUT THE BLOG. That’s where I set out what kind of posts I hoped to do. (To honor Harry.) The categories on the right side include Politics, but the last politics post I did was back on November 28, 2022. (Just after the mid-term elections. “After the election 2022…”) So it’s about time for a new post on today’s politics.

In part this post will include a review of past posts to see how any predictions turned out.

Like back in June 2018 I posted “The rope has to tighten SLOWLY.” It started off talking about then-president Trump’s pardon power, and especially whether he could pardon himself. I first wanted to call the post, “The truth will come out.” (Because that’s what I believe.) But then I started re-reading All the President’s Men, the 1974 book by Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. I recalled the part where Deep Throat lectured Woodward on the importance of building a conspiracy investigation slowly, “from the outer edges in.”  (In an obscure parking garage at 3:00 a.m.) Or as one old saying goes, “The wheels of justice grind slowly…”

That last was addressed to those who asked, “Why is the Mueller investigation taking so long?” (Five months after Mueller was appointed, bringing up “the classic American need for instant gratification.”) But back to 1974, and Deep Throat lecturing Woodward on the importance of building an investigation slowly. You can read the full lecture – and background – at page 196 of the Simon and Schuster (1974) hardback, but here’s the highlight:

“A conspiracy like this … a conspiracy investigation … the rope has to tighten slowly around everyone’s neck. You build convincingly from the outer edges in, you get ten times the evidence you need against the Hunts and Liddys. They feel hopelessly finished – they may not talk right away, but the grip is on them. Then you move up and do the same thing to the next level. If you shoot too high and miss, then everybody feels more secure. Lawyers work this way. I’m sure smart reporters do too. You’ve put the investigation back months. It puts everybody on the defensive – editors, FBI agents, everybody has to go into a crouch after this.”

The book added, “Woodward swallowed hard.  He deserved the lecture.”

And speaking of slow wheels of justice, “Did they have to grind this slow?” Meaning it’s only now – three years after he left office – that Trump finally got “convicted” of something. Specifically, the May 9, 2023 jury verdict saying he’s Liable for Sexual Abuse and Defamation. (And must pay $5 million in damages.) Back in June 2018 I wrote that the federal Mueller Investigation might end – and it did, without accountability – but that wouldn’t be the end of the story. The Mueller investigation would be followed by “a whole new series of state criminal proceedings.” (As in a state like New York, “where ‘The Donald’ or his minions have done business.”) And then, I said, “the ‘noose-tightening’ would start all over again.” And it did, and it continues.

Yet it remains true that from 1973 to 2023, Trump dodged all legal accountability for his actions. (For an analysis of his tactics – “deny, deflect, delay” – How Trump Survived Decades of Legal Trouble.) But even with the sex-abuse and defamation verdicts, he remains for many people “Teflon Don.” See for example the recent poll saying Biden trails Trump in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. I’ll address that bombshell in a future post – including a reference to polls showing a “red wave” in the 2022 mid-terms – but for now I’ll say that’s hardly surprising. In November 2021 I posted Donald Trump – the newest “Undead Revenant?”

Trump seem[s] to rise from the political ashes, not unlike the proverbial Phoenix. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say rising again, like a &^%$ Zombie. (Which the Cambridge Dictionary defines as a frightening creature, a seemingly dead person “brought back to life, but without human qualities.”

On the other hand, the Undead Revenant post did mention one good reason Trump might not run in 2024. Call it the “Adlai Stevenson effect.” Some of his advisers – back in November 2021 – had a plan to dissuade him. They pointed out that if Trump ran but lost again in 2024, “he would join Stevenson as one of history’s serial losers,” and Trump “hates losers.” (See also Donald Trump can’t stand being called a “loser.”) Maybe that will turn out to be true.

All of which brings up the so-called old Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.”

Wikipedia noted, “While seemingly a blessing, the expression is normally used ironically.” The irony is that to many, “life is better in ‘uninteresting times’ of peace and tranquility than in ‘interesting’ ones, which are usually times of trouble.” (The way I heard it the curse went, “May your children live in interesting times.” Meaning somebody must have told our parents that.)

Anyway, I’d say “time of trouble” aptly describes today’s political climate in Washington. Or as another Chinese saying goes, “Better to be a dog in times of tranquility than a human in times of chaos.” That chaos too could describe today’s politics in Washington. Which means that as interesting as it’s been since 2016, it’s about to get a whole lot more interesting.

Who knows, with a few more convictions that “Adlai Stevenson effect” may yet kick in.

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The upper image is courtesy of Wheels Of Justice Grind Slowly – Image Results. It’s from a “Friends of Liberty Blog.” I’m not sure which “Chris Robertson” the cartoon referred to. A Google search showed an actor of that name convicted of tax evasion, a “David Chris Robertson” convicted of sexual exploitation of a minor, and a Christopher Ray Robertson convicted of armed robberies. Also re: “Wheels of justice.” The full quote: “The wheels of justice turn slowly, but grind exceedingly fine.”

Re: Trump’s “conviction.” Technically, or perhaps hyper-technically, a person is “convicted” only in a criminal case. See Difference Between a Civil Judgment & Conviction.

 Re: Adlai Stevenson effect. Undead Revenant included this from Adlai Stevenson – Slate:

Today we’re quick to banish presidential losers… Yet one White House loser—a serial loser, at that—still haunts the political landscape: Adlai Stevenson. Every political season the pundits find some reason to resurrect him, invariably in a flattering light… Stevenson not only lost nobly; he made losing seem noble in and of itself.

I noted, “It’s hard to imagine Trump making a second-run loss seem ‘noble in and of itself.’”

Also, it turns out there were actually three “Adlais.” The two-time presidential candidate – defeated twice “in a landslide by Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956″ – was Adlai Stevenson II (1900-1965). See also Adlai Stevenson I – Wikipedia (1835-1914), and Former Illinois Sen. Adlai Stevenson III dead at 90 (1930-2021.) As to the latter:

His son confirmed his death to The Chicago Sun-Times… “He just faded away,” Adlai Stevenson IV told the newspaper. Stevenson [III], a member of a dynastic family in Illinois politics, spent 11 years in the Senate and unsuccessfully ran for governor of his home state twice. The former senator was the son of former Gov. Adlai Stevenson II and great grandson of former Vice President Adlai Stevenson.

The lower image is courtesy Adlai Stevenson II – Wikipedia. Caption: “A poster from the 1952 campaign.” I originally planned to use the image at left, courtesy of Trump As Zombie Images – Image Results. It accompanies a set of notes from Mind Over Media. Their slogan: “PROPAGANDA IS ALL AROUND US. Do you know how to recognize and respond to it?” A related note: “Propaganda education for a Digital Age.” As to the image, the article provides Background information: “This is an artistic piece relating Donald Trump to the film ‘They Live.’ It was created by someone called Hefner for personal expression, and serves to show how Trump is just another media based demagogue trying to shape your views for you.” Technique used: “Attack Opponents.” It’s propaganda because: “It attacks Trump and is trying to wake people up to the idea that they are being controlled.” (Good luck on that one.)

One final note about the “so-called old Chinese curse, May you live in interesting times. According to Wikipedia, it’s actually “an English expression that is claimed to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse.” The article added that despite being so well known in English, “no actual Chinese source has ever been produced.” The saying “better to be a dog in times of tranquility” is the closest parallel that’s been found.

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It’s November 8, 2022, Election Day. The pre-election polls have been all over the place, but the general consensus is that Republicans will take over Congress. (House and Senate.*) The consensus is also that voters want Republicans to fix the economy and lower inflation. But here’s a prediction, one I’ll check some time after the election. Those Republicans will ignore the time-honored “it’s the economy, stupid” and spend their time and political capital on other things.

Like threatening to shut down the Government, threatening to default on the national debt, pressuring Biden to abandon Ukraine, spending time and money investigating Hunter Biden, and wasting even more time and money impeaching Biden. (With scant chance of success, requiring 67 votes, and which might lead to the first directed verdict in impeachment history.) And if Republicans do impeach Biden, he might end up more popular because of the impeachment. (Like what happened when the Republicans impeached Bill Clinton back in the 1990s.)

For another example, back in 2010 the Republicans also got control of both houses of Congress. But they then ignored the economy, and threatened to default the national debt, and did shut down the government. Result? In the 2012 U.S. elections, the Democrats regained control of the Senate – and gained seats – while President Obama was re-elected to a second term.

Then there was the election surprise of 1948. It happened two years after Republicans took over Congress for the first time in 14 years, and started creating headaches the Harry Truman, the Democratic president. Nobody gave Truman a snowball’s chance in hell of being re-elected, but he came through, largely by attacking the “Do Nothing” Republican Congress. (“Truman ran more against the 80th ‘Do Nothing’ Congress than he did against Dewey.”)

All of which could end up being good news for Biden.

So much for predicting the future. How have I done making such predictions in past posts?

In August 2019 I posted “Why it might be better…” (Gasp!) As in, why it might have been better if Trump had won the 2020 election. One big reason: He wouldn’t be eligible to run again in 2024. On the other hand, if he lost, in the intervening four years – with a Democrat as president – “he might just wreak more havoc to American democracy than he could as president.” (And some would say that prediction came true.) Another reason? Why not get it over with? If he did get re-elected in 2020, he would immediately become a lame duck. “The official is often seen as having less influence with other politicians due to their limited time left in office.”

Then too, if he had won in 2020, he would now be facing the challenges that are giving Biden such fits, and it would be the Democrats threatening to sweep Congress in the mid-terms. (Come to think of it, that might have been a whole lot better all around.)

But getting back to Election Day. As always, the best course – for either party, in any election, and for life in general – is Hope For The Best, Prepare For The Worst. And for this scenario, let’s make two assumptions. First that the Republicans will take over Congress, and second that that would be “the worst.” (Purely to illustrate and explain the idiom, you understand.)

For one thing, we may see a rise in Christian nationalism. Which could present a problem: “nationalist governments tend to become authoritarian and oppressive in practice. (What Is Christian Nationalism? | Christianity Today.) See also Christian nationalism isn’t Christianity. It’s spewing hate in ‘the name of Jesus’ “Christianity is grounded in Christian scriptures where Jesus teaches love, peace, unity and truth. Christian nationalism preaches hatred, violence, separation, and disinformation.” Which – again – could present a problem.

I’ve written that there’s now more than ever a very good reason for more Americans to read and study the Bible: Political self-defense. Today’s Christian Nationalists get a lot of political power from the fact that their pointy-headed Liberal opponents just don’t know the Bible. They can’t tell when those on the Far Right misquote, misuse or abuse the Bible.

So in preparing for the worst, I plan to do a lot more Bible-citing – on Facebook, my blogs and elsewhere – in an effort to keep Christian Nationalists and the like on the straight and narrow. Citations like Matthew 5:43-44, “What part of ‘love your enemies’ don’t you understand?” Or 1st John 4:20, “if we say we love God and don’t love each other, we are liars. We cannot see God. So how can we love God, if we don’t love the people we can see?” To simplify it even further:

Play the Jesus Card. It’ll drive “those people” crazy!

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The upper image is courtesy of Predict Future Images – Image Results. See also The best way to predict your future is to create it, including “If you want to predict your future, then start dreaming. You can invent your own future if you can live your dream. Start dreaming and make it your reality. Remember one thing your dream can be a reality in the future if you start working for your dreams.” But see also, FACT CHECK: Did Abraham Lincoln Say, ‘The Best Way To Predict, etc. The verdict? False: “The first known instance of the saying appeared roughly a century after Lincoln’s death.” Which is a reminder: Check your sources!

Re: “Republicans will take over Congress.” As of Thursday, November 10, they may still do so, but the results for Republicans have been underwhelming. See What Happened to the Red Wave in the Midterm Elections? And What Happened to That Red Wave? The Midterms Will All Make Sense – In Hindsight. The short and sweet post-mortem? I woke up Wednesday to a pleasant surprise, to be discussed further in my next post.

Citations used in the main text: Republicans are making no secret of their plans to shut down, Bullish on a House takeover, GOP’s investigative plans on Hunter Biden and others pick up steam, Opinion | Republicans will impeach Biden in 2023, and Republican gains in Congress would pressure Biden on Ukraine and Iran. For a more optimistic view, see When Republicans took over Congress, they promised to govern, from 2015.

Also on a Biden impeachment, see What would a Republican Congress look like? A lot of investigations and maybe impeachment (Detroit Free Press, 11/7/22): “Such a move would garner high media attention and could backfire if voters disapprove. Several [Republicans] were in office during the 1990s, when the GOP impeachment of Bill Clinton led to the loss of some GOP congressional seats and boosted the president’s popularity.” Also, “Even if Biden were impeached, the Senate would hold a trial that would require a two-thirds majority to convict Biden, a near-impossible task.”

And more about that waking up Wednesday morning to a pleasant surprise. I had all kinds of smarmy remarks to share in the next two years, such as “Looks like the voter suppression worked!” And “I guess that gives the lie to the vast conspiracy that ‘stole’ the 2020 election. If it was so powerful, why didn’t it help in this election?” But after further thought, I’m glad I don’t have to use them. Also, I considered saying something about Democrats storming the Capitol to overturn the 2022 results. Which brings up point of clarification about January 6, 2021. Various sites including Fact checking claims January 6 say the events that day were not – technically – an insurrection, as some Democrats claimed, but was rather a riot. “The Cambridge Dictionary defines ‘insurrection’ as: ‘an organized attempt by a group of people to defeat their government and take control of their country, usually by violence.'” (Can you say hypertechnical?) Instead the rioters – most agree on that term – were more like a dog chasing a car. (No idea what to do if they caught up to it.) See also How Many Died as a Result of Capitol Riot? – FactCheck.org. Answer: One source said at least seven people “lost their lives in connection with the Jan. 6 attack.” The seven included Rosanne Boyland, who died “in a crush of fellow rioters during their attempt to fight through a police line, according to videos reviewed by The Times.” (Boyland — “an avid Trump supporter who subscribed to Q Anon conspiracy theories —  had collapsed while standing off to the side in the Capitol rotunda.”) USCP Officer Brian Sicknick “suffered two strokes nearly eight hours after being sprayed with a chemical irritant during the riot.” Four other police officers committed suicide in the days and months after the riot.

The full “isn’t Christianity” cite: Ahrens: Christian nationalism isn’t Christianity. It’s spewing hate in ‘the name of Jesus.’

The 1st John 4:20 quotation is from the Contemporary English Version. See also the GNT: “If we say we love God, but hate others, we are liars. For we cannot love God, whom we have not seen, if we do not love others, whom we have seen.” Traditional translations use the word “brother,” which could enable Christian Nationalists to try and wriggle out of Jesus’ command. The word “brothers” clearly includes “enemies.”

The lower image is courtesy of The Election of 1948 | Harry S. Truman (Truman Library).

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Here are some other notes I considered using but didn’t put in the main text. A post from January 10, 2021 – right after January 6 – “You DO understand that Trump is temporary.” (Or maybe not?) Which featured one ostensibly positive note: That the reaction to Trump’s presidency “can provide the foundation for an era of democratic renewal and vindicate our long experiment in self-rule.” (See GOP Rep. Mace: Trump’s legacy ‘wiped out’ by Capitol riot.) 

Later, in November 2021, I posted Donald Trump – the newest “Undead Revenant?”

So, assuming a Republican sweep in this election, a lot of Trump supporters will be asking why others don’t like him. I’ve struggled with how to answer that question, beginning with the fact that he thinks he is above the law. But in dealing with those supporters, you have to keep it simple, like they do. (Put another way, you need to dumb it down.) The answer I finally came up with, as to why I don’t support Trump: “He doesn’t follow Jesus!” From there you can cite the words and actions of Jesus, then compare and contrast them with Donald Trump.

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